Enrollment (Basic Education):

• Primary and pre-primary enrollment continued at multi-million scale (pre-primary >2.8–2.9 million; primary ~10+ million in recent years), with public schools still carrying the majority of learners though private provision is large in urban areas. The 2024 school-census workstream was intended to firm up these counts and improve school-level data. Kenya Data & Statistics+1

Examinations and Cohorts:

• The Kenya Certificate of Primary Education (KCPE) and Kenya Certificate of Secondary Education (KCSE) systems ran their full cohorts in 2024/early-2025 — KNEC reported over 1.4 million candidates in KCPE assessments and nearly 960–965k candidates for KCSE (the KCSE 2024 cohort results were published in January 2025). These large cohorts continue to place heavy operational demands on assessment and transition systems. KNEC+1

Learning Outcomes & “Learning Poverty”:

• International and sector analyses highlight persistent learning gaps: a non-trivial share of children still do not attain basic reading comprehension by age 10 — a metric the World Bank frames as “learning poverty.” Kenya has made gains in access but faces a learning crisis that needs concentrated remedial efforts. World Bank+1

Data and Planning:

• 2024 saw major efforts to strengthen data (KNBS National School Census pilot and broader NEMIS rollouts) so planners would have more reliable, disaggregated school-level data going forward

2.1 Access & Scale

• Public schools: still deliver the bulk of basic education nationally, particularly in rural and peri-urban areas and for lower-income families. Public primary schools carry very large class sizes in many counties.

• Private schools: numerous and concentrated in urban, peri-urban, and wealthier counties. Private institutions range from low-fee community schools to high-fee elite schools; their share of total enrollment varies by level and region (private share is higher in pre-primary and urban secondary/tertiary segments). KNBS/National School Census work in 2024 aimed to quantify these shares more precisely. knbs.or.ke+1

2.2 Learning & exam performance

• Top performers: Lists of top 100/200 KCSE schools in 2024 include both longstanding national public schools and private schools; private schools were prominent among high-mean performing individual institutions, though national public schools still dominate many top-positions overall. This reflects concentration of resources, selection of higher-scoring cohorts, and institutional history (boarding national schools, selective intake). Nation Africa+1

• Average outcomes: Academic literature on Kenya (and comparable settings) typically finds higher average test scores in many private schools, but with large heterogeneity. Researchers caution that apparent private advantage is partly driven by selection (socioeconomic background, prior attainment) and school practices — i.e., private schools are not a uniform guarantee of better learning for all. Several rigorous studies and working papers on Kenya find evidence of private-school gains on literacy/numeracy but emphasize context and selection effects. econrsa.org+1

2.3 Resources & inputs

• Per-pupil financing: Public funding (capitation, teachers’ salaries) is centrally administered; private schools rely on fees and private investment. Many private schools (especially mid-to-high fee) invest more in physical infrastructure, smaller class sizes, and extracurriculars. Low-cost private schools exist but vary widely in quality.

• Teacher availability & qualifications: Teacher supply challenges persist in both sectors: remote public schools frequently suffer shortages and multi-grade teaching; private schools often recruit on different terms (contract teachers, locally hired) which affects continuity and professional development opportunities. National teacher management (TSC) data and sector reports point to redistribution and capacity priorities but also to persistent imbalances. newsite.treasury.go.ke+1

2.4 Equity & access

• Private schools, by definition, charge fees; rising cost pressures during 2024/2025 meant some households moved children from private to public or to lower-fee private options. Conversely, wealthier households continue to use private provision for perceived quality gains. Public schools remain central to universal access goals but still show gaps in infrastructure, sanitation, special needs provision and regional equity.

• Sustained broad access — Kenya maintained very high gross enrollment at primary level and continued expansion at secondary and TVET levels in several measures. Kenya Data & Statistics

• Improved data systems — the 2024 National School Census pilot and NEMIS strengthening are important steps toward better planning and targeting. knbs.or.ke

• Resilience of assessment systems — large cohorts were successfully examined (KCPE/KCSE) despite logistical challenges.

• Learning crisis: high attendance does not translate into guaranteed mastery of reading and numeracy; “learning poverty” remains a central policy problem. World Bank

• Equity gaps: rural, marginalized and special-needs learners face under-resourced public schools; private provision is geographically uneven. newsite.treasury.go.ke+1

• Teacher distribution & quality: shortages in some counties, inconsistent continuous professional development, and uneven pupil-teacher ratios. newsite.treasury.go.ke

• Fiscal constraints: macroeconomic pressures in 2024 tightened public spending envelopes; this affects non-salary inputs (learning materials, infrastructure, recruitment). (Sector budget analyses for 2024/25 raised these concerns.)

• Who reaches top exam positions? Many top KCSE school positions are still held by national boarding schools (public) as well as elite private schools; private schools, especially high-fee ones, were prominent among the very top mean scores in 2024. But top school lists represent a small fraction of all schools and students. Nation Africa+1

• Average learning differences: Multiple empirical studies in Kenya show private attendance is associated with higher average test scores in literacy and numeracy, but the magnitude shrinks once controls for family background and prior achievement are included. That implies policy must address the root causes (early childhood inputs, household poverty, teacher quality) not just shift attendance patterns. econrsa.org+1

• Tertiary trends: 2024 saw a decline in enrollment into private universities (reported drop ≈14% in 2024 in KNBS/Economic Survey coverage), reflecting affordability pressures and demographic/market shifts. Public universities absorbed many places via government placement mechanisms, but financing and absorptive capacity remain concerns

Urban counties (Nairobi, Kiambu, Nakuru, etc.) feature higher private provision and higher concentrations of top-performing schools; rural and arid counties show greater shortages in trained teachers, classrooms and materials. The 2024 school census effort targeted these data gaps to help redistribute resources more equitably.

Short term (0–12 months)

1. Targeted remedial programs for Grades 2–6 focusing on reading and foundational numeracy (accelerated learning blocks, reading coaches). Use NEMIS/census microdata to target lowest-performing schools.

2. Strengthen teacher continuous professional development (CPD) with focus on foundational pedagogy, multi-grade strategies and assessment for learning.

3. Protect non-salary education budgets for learning materials and remedial programs in the face of fiscal pressures.

Medium term (1–3 years)
4. Scale successful PPP models that raise learning at scale while guarding equity (for example fee-assistance to low-income learners in high-performing private schools where evidence shows gains, conditional on accountability).
5. Use census/NEMIS data to equitably allocate teachers and capital investments (classrooms, sanitation, ICT) — prioritise counties with largest learning deficits.
6. Expand early-grade reading programs (pre-primary and Grades 1–3) including mother-tongue literacies where evidence supports improved uptake.

Long term (3–7 years)
7. Systemic reform of assessment and feedback loops that link classroom formative assessment to national support, and invest in teacher career pathways tied to demonstrated learning outcomes.
8. Sustain stable financing for TVET and higher education while diversifying financing (scholarships, work-study, private partnerships) so tertiary expansion does not degrade quality.

• Full release of the 2024 National School Census final results (will provide granular public/private counts, infrastructure and teacher distribution).

• KCSE cohort analysis (2024 results released Jan 2025) — disaggregated trends by county, school type, and gender will inform secondary-level interventions.